Why AP called the Michigan Senate race for Elissa Slotkin
WASHINGTON (AP) — Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin won Michigan's razor's-edge race for U.S. Senate, defeating former Republican congressman Mike Rogers in a battle of attrition. In the end, Slotkin carried the state after there were not enough ballots left to be counted for Rogers to overtake her roughly 18,000-vote lead when The Associated Press called the race at 3:12 p.m. Wednesday.
The outcome was a reversal of fortune for Rogers, who jumped out to a significant early lead that continued into Wednesday's early hours. But population-dense Democratic strongholds, including Wayne County, home to Detroit, still had large amounts of ballots to count. And as Wednesday wore on, Slotkin improved her standing by winning many of the subsequent updates as election officials continued to tabulate the vote and release new numbers.
Though the race is tight, Rogers would need to collect over 64 percent of the remaining vote to overtake Slotkin's lead. His campaign has not said whether he will request a recount, which he is allowed to do under Michigan law.
Slotkin joined Wisconsin’s Tammy Baldwin in holding two “blue wall” Senate seats for Democrats in states that Trump won.
CANDIDATES: Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin, former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers
WINNER: Slotkin
POLL CLOSING TIME: 8 p.m. & 9 p.m. ET.
ABOUT THE RACE:
There was a time in the not-too-distant past when Republicans were a dominant force in Michigan, controlling the governor’s office and both chambers of the Legislature while holding a majority of the state’s congressional seats. But they have long struggled when it came to the U.S. Senate. This year was no exception, though the came close.
Slotkin, a former CIA analyst, has been a strong campaigner throughout her career in Congress. Rogers, meanwhile, was coaxed out of retirement in Florida to run. The race determined who would replace longtime Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, whose decision to retire after five terms had turned what was once a safe seat into a pickup opportunity for Republicans. The GOP reclaimed a three vote Senate majority, but a win in Michigan would have helped pad their numbers.
Rogers, the former House Intelligence Committee chairman, gave Michigan Republicans a chance to end their 24-year drought in races for U.S. Senate. Though Rogers served Michigan in the House for years, he retired to the Miami area and has been accused by Democrats of allowing his Michigan ties to atrophy.
The Republican Party in Michigan is also in disarray, with a pro-Trump faction often feuding with the state’s moderate, pro-business establishment that was once the party’s secret to success in the state. That success, however, evaporated several years ago, when Democrats reclaimed the governor’s office, the Legislature and a majority of congressional seats.
Rogers nearly overcame that drama.
WHY AP CALLED THE RACE: Slotkin led by about 18,700 votes when AP called the race after determining there weren’t enough votes left to count that would allow Rogers to catch up. Rogers had led before late-reporting votes from Wayne, home to Detroit, and other big Democratic-leaning counties lifted Slotkin ahead. She joined Wisconsin’s Tammy Baldwin in holding two Blue Wall Senate seats for Democrats.
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